Retail predictions for the 2024 holiday shopping season

In today’s landscape, economic uncertainty, a proliferation of digital channels and the rise of a global market are redrawing the holiday shopping calendar. For retailers, how well they perform will depend on how well they are able to manage the major shifts within the market.

An earlier start: Black Friday is now

Holiday creep—the idea that seasonal shopping periods start earlier and earlier in the year—is a very real phenomenon, and Christmas tends to be the biggest contributor. Last year, we saw major retailers like Target, Walmart and Amazon offer holiday promotions as early as October—a strategy that helped deliver strong earnings and mitigate supply chain crimps by extending the shopping season.

This year, an uncertain economic landscape and the high-stakes U.S. presidential election is likely to see the majority of retailers start the season even earlier, possibly in September. And perhaps that’s a blessing, given that there are only 27 shopping days between cutting the turkey and trimming the tree in 2024.

From the consumer side, there is bound to be a bit of a Goldilocks effect. For some, September holiday sales will be far too early; but for others, they will be just right. The question is: How do retailers determine which shoppers fall into each category and reach them accordingly?

That’s where data and AI come in. As companies advance their analytics capabilities and leverage generative AI tools to create customized campaigns and experiences, it has become possible to distinguish which shoppers want to start early and engage them effectively—without alienating those who prefer to kick off after warming up a plate of leftovers.

Using data, AI, and predictive analytics to segment the shopper base and then target people with personalized campaigns, offers and experiences is the key to maximizing the holiday season.

The shift: From discounts to relationships

Traditionally speaking, the retail holiday season and Black Friday in particular, has been all about ‘the deal’. While a great promotion is still a core part of every holiday strategy, sustainable growth will come from building loyalty with shoppers, in addition to appealing to discount chasers. 

Build brand loyalty

The challenge is that different things matter to different people. For some, convenience will rule the day; for others, shared social values will prompt a sale. As in any relationship, what retailers need to do is understand who they are connecting with and what matters to that person.

Deliver customer satisfaction

A grocery store may be able to become a busy shopper’s go-to for all things holiday by promoting speciality items and prepared foods that will instantly elevate any table. They can even break into the gift category by offering a selection of curated gifts and stocking stuffers.

Integrate technology

A digital retailer can make gift shopping easier by enabling browsers to easily send a direct purchase link from a web store, an app, or social platforms to a would-be gift giver. Additionally, use AI to create and send reminders to the shopper prompting them to make the purchase or suggest similar items or popular bundles.

Trader Joe’s, with their selection of seasonal snacks and specialty items that have gained a cult-like following, is a great example of how even a grocery store can make the gift list. Meanwhile, Amazon Wish List has successfully adopted registry buying, digital gifting, and gifting services, into their e-commerce platform.

By making the shopper journey simpler, more convenient, and more connected, it’s possible for retailers across segments to begin building loyalty that will deliver results well beyond the holiday season.

The win: Conversion is critical, but fulfillment is the clutch

Regardless of what channels your retail organization plans to focus on this year, the unifying theme is: convert where you can. Whether your target consumer is browsing in-store, scrolling on social media, or hanging in a gaming platform in the metaverse, it’s important to have an easy way for them to purchase directly within that channel and also enable them to seamlessly switch to another if they prefer.

The other related and perhaps even more important element in building loyalty is fulfillment. One of the best ways to build a meaningful and lasting relationship with your target audience is by delivering on the ‘customer promise’. That means stocking the advertised products in stores and reducing any friction during the physical journey, as well as ensuring digital orders are processed and shipped according to the agreed terms. 

Preparing for the next holiday shopping season now   

Black Friday is no longer a single day of deals. It’s an extended period of strategic marketing, relationship building, and omnichannel excellence. To capitalize, retailers need to remember these key takeaways:

1. Start the season early: In an unpredictable financial climate, kicking off the holiday shopping season early can drive channel growth and alleviate potential challenges. Implementing sub-category sales not only opens new revenue streams but also spreads out the demand, easing pressure on supply chains and ensuring a steady flow of inventory.
2. Deepen customer connections with data and AI: Personalization is no longer a luxury but a requirement. Leveraging data and AI to create tailored shopping experiences fosters deeper connections with customers, aligning with the growing demand for individualized attention. This approach nurtures loyalty and ensures that each interaction resonates with the customer’s preferences and needs.
3. Ensure consistency with predictive analytics: The integration of intelligent technology and predictive analytics is crucial for maintaining consistent fulfillment across all channels. By anticipating seasonal demand and aligning stock levels with trend forecasts, retailers can keep shelves stocked and deliver timely service, enhancing the overall customer experience.

By integrating these strategies into their holiday planning, retailers can confidently navigate the complexities of rapidly evolving consumer behavior and varied expectations. Proactively adapting and harnessing the power of data and intelligent technology can enable them to not just participate but to lead and maximize the potential of the holiday season.